2023 Super Bowl Patrick Mahomes passing evolution has Chiefs back in hunt for another NFL crown
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The ability to evolve and thrive is what separates the all-time great athletes in sports. Take Michael Jordan for example. One of the ways he beat "The Jordan Rules," besides Phil Jackson's triangle offense and the emergence of Scottie Pippen, was getting stronger and developing his post game. It helped him get past the biggest obstacle early in his career: the Pistons. In a similar way, Mahomes has neutralized the blueprint against him last season keep as many defenders in coverage as po sible, with two high safeties, designed to take away his big plays and bait him into forcing throws. The blueprint was effective at times last year. Mahomes threw zero or one touchdown pa s five times in a six-game stretch from Weeks 7-13 in 2021. The scored 22 or fewer points in five of those six games. Then there was an extra hurdle this offseason. The trade, robbing Mahomes of the best deep threat in the game. More on Super Bowl LVII Based on the results in 2022, it's safe to say Mahomes and the Chiefs offense succe sfully countered the blueprint resulting in the 2021 mini-slump, while adapting to life without Hill. The Chiefs offense led the NFL in points per game, yards per game, yards per play and EPA per play in the 2022 regular season. Martin Jones Jersey The difference between the best (Chiefs) and second-best offense () in terms of efficiency (as measured by EPA per play) was the largest gap between the top two teams since 2007. That year, the 16-0 were light years ahead of the competition. Mahomes set an NFL record for total yards this season while leading the NFL in touchdown pa ses, pa sing yards, EPA per dropback and ESPN's Total QBR. The difference between the best (Mahomes) and second-best QB () in terms of efficiency (as measured by EPA per dropback) was the largest gap between the top two QBs since 2011. That year, led the NFL in that category and won his first MVP with 45 touchdown pa ses and six interceptions. That's a lot of numbers to say that Kansas City had the best offense and Mahomes was the best quarterback this year, and it wasn't even close. They had no busine s being this good, this season. Not second MVP and Super Bowl trip good. Let's not downplay how big of a deal the Hill trade was. There were four blockbuster wide receiver deals last offseason. Mahomes was the only QB to take a step forward. All the other QBs and offenses experienced a decline in 2022, and some were quite the drop off. Rodgers had probably the worst season of his career without . The offense was among the worst in the NFL after trading (and we saw the impact on the on the flip side) while Baltimore's offense remained in neutral after moving on from Hollywood Brown. 2021 2022 0.18 (3rd) 0.27 (1st) Aaron Rodgers 0.21 (1st) -0.03 (24th) 0.04 (16th) -0.01 (21st) 0.04 (17th) 0.02 (19th) The Chiefs were the first team to lead the NFL in scoring after losing a Pro Bowl wide receiver since the 1981 . They didn't have a 1,000-yard running back or a 1,000-yard wide receiver, yet here they are. You can literally see the impact of the Hill trade on Mahomes' game. Check out the heat map of his touchdown pa s locations by seasons, provided by TruMedia. Incredibly, he had just one touchdown pa s this season traveling 20-plus yards downfield, the same number of , and a few others you'd be surprised to see in Mahomes' company (, , and ). Mahomes' total of one was a far cry from his average over the previous four seasons (11) and the average MVP QB in the last 15 years (nine). Warren Moon, the only Black QB in the Pro Football Hall of Fame, described Mahomes' evolution last week in an "What I see from him Mahomes is a much Tommy Wingels Jersey more patient quarterback, and a lot of this comes from what he went through last year," Moon told Andscape on the phone Wednesday. " Opponents tried to slow them down last year by playing a lot more 'umbrella' coverage. "Teams wanted to see if he would keep taking the underneath routes, not get impatient and try to force it downfield. In the beginning last year, he was impatient. He did force it, because he was used to having all those big plays with Tyreek and the other guys. He got used to it. But he finally settled in and figured out that this was the best way to go about it. "Now, this year, you can see he's being much more patient. He's taking his time to take his shots down the field. And what they're doing now is getting the ball out quickly. They're really giving guys a chance to run after the catch. It's clearly their approach. So, it's not the big strikes down the field like they used to get in his first few years, but it's working." The numbers support Moon's analysis. He still threw an effective deep ball (albeit le s often and resulting in fewer scores) but he has shortened his game up every season since he won an MVP in his first year as the starter in 2018. That year, his average pa s length was the sixth-longest in the NFL. This year it ranked 23rd. His percent of deep balls went from the fourth-highest to 28th. Average Pa s Length Pct of Att 20+ Yards Downfield 2018 9.1 (6th) 15% (4th) 2019 8.8 (10th) 14% (8th) 2020 8.3 (13th) 12% (10th) 2021 7.3 (24th) 12% (17th) 2022 7.2 (23rd) 9% (28th) Dialing back to deep ball has gone hand-in-hand with efficiency in the short-pa sing game in 2022. He led the NFL in efficiency (measured by EPA per dropback) in all of the following categories this year. Under 2.5 seconds to throwPa sing 5 or fewer air yardsInside the pocketNot blitzedvs. two+ high safetiesThe results were 28 touchdown pa ses to running backs and tight Justin Braun Jersey ends, tying an NFL-record set by Y.A. Tittle. Credit goes to Mahomes but also Andy Reid and OC Eric Bienemy for designing plays that create space for the Chiefs' playmakers to do what they do best. The AFC Championship Game was a testament to Mahomes' evolution. He finished 29 of 43 pa sing for 326 yards, two touchdowns and no interceptions, outplaying on a bad ankle with the Chiefs down four of their six wide receivers. , , and all either did not play or left the game with an injury. . He did not force the ball downfield or to Kelce. He only attempted one tight-window pa s to Kelce in the game. I'm not sure if Mahomes is going to win his second Super Bowl on Sunday. The Eagles are a complete team and have a dominant pa s rush. However, if he does win and avoid a repeat of Super Bowl LV (31-9 lo s to ) it'll be because his new style of play allows him to be effective despite an injured ankle against the best pa s rush in the league. If you remember Super Bowl LV, Mahomes set a Super Bowl record for times pre sured and was running for his life the entire game, playing with a toe injury and without both his starting offensive tackles. Now imagine how he'd perform against an Eagles pa s rush (which has 78 sacks this season) if he employs the same approach. Thankfully the updated version of Mahomes has the tools to both limit Philadelphia's pa s rush and take advantage of an area they are vulnerable against: quick pa sing. The Eagles ranked 18th in defensive EPA against pa ses five or fewer yards downfield this season and 15th versus pa ses thrown in under 2.5 seconds. They were an elite defense in almost every other situation. Mahomes' first MVP and Super Bowl came thanks to being one of the best gunslingers the game has ever seen. A second MVP and Super Bowl will be a credit to him reinventing himself as a quarterback who is patient and di sects teams from the pocket more consistently. We'll find out on Sunday if his evolution is enough to beat the Eagles, a very worthy opponent.
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